Will Crime Go Up As the Economy Goes Down?
November 25th, 2008 | by admin |
Will Crime Go Up as the Economy Goes Down?
Many people believe that the nation’s crime rate is correlated with the state of the economy — that is, as the economy dwindles, the rate of crime increases. It’s not an invalid fear: when people lose their jobs and become desperate to make ends meet, they sometimes turn to petty crime to help alleviate their economic problems.
But while the connection makes intuitive sense — when people have nothing to lose, they’re more likely to commit crimes — it hasn’t been proved to be true historically. This can be explained by a number of different factors: for one, the people that are most likely to commit crimes during bad economic times are generally just as likely to commit them in good economic times. This tendency essentially means that crime is not affected by this group; their propensity to commit crime is not changed by the condition of the economy.
A second factor that affects the crime rate during recessions is the fact that people move in with their families when the economy is unstable. This phenomenon actually has a stabilizing effect on the crime rate; instead of being pressed for money to pay rent, younger people — the most prone to resorting to crime out of desperation — rely on their parents or grandparents for support and thus are less likely to commit crimes they might otherwise feel pressured to commit.
The difference is not that their families offer more support in tough times, but that they feel less shame for accepting it. There is less of a negative stigma attached to relying on one’s family for support in a downturn, and this acceptance makes it easier for young people to avoid crimes that they would otherwise have to commit in order to survive.
How Will the Current Recession Effect Crime?
There is some precedent of crime increasing during periods of economic slowdown. Murder rates hit historical highs in cities across the country following the stock market crash of 1987, but many criminologists attribute this increase to the proliferation of crack cocaine and the subsequent gang warfare that it engendered.
One affect of the downturn that many police departments are preparing to deal with is an increase in domestic violence — much of it unreported. Domestic violence has historically increased as the economy goes down, owing to an increased sense of helplessness and frustration by individuals who have been laid off or cannot find employment.
Another way in which crime goes up as the economy goes down is in mental health citations, or incidents in which people act abnormally and must be confronted by the police. These citations generally see a significant increase during bad economic times, and, while not necessarily affecting the countries crime rate, put strain on police budgets.
In general, bad economic times do not catalyze sharp, drastic upswings in the crime rate. For the most part, crime is not expected to increase by any appreciable amount over the next few years. And while mass hysteria and paranoia should be avoided, the average person should still take the same precautions they normally take to safeguard themselves from becoming a victim of crime.
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